The reason for the slow development of domestic air freight，It is related to the carrier's business model: the traditional airline's cargo business sales mainly rely on agents to solicit goods，The customer is controlled by the forwarder，They earn the middle spread，Traditional airlines do more of the transportation，Not only failed to enjoy the dividends of cross-border e-commerce imports and exports continued to grow year after year，Instead, it faces the dilemma of "nine losses in ten years"。 ]

The global spread of COVID-19 has directly affected international logistics。However, the situation faced by different logistics and transportation enterprises can be described as ice and fire。

Usually the international logistics transport mode is mainly air and sea。The decline in international trade under the epidemic has affected the demand for air and sea transport, and the suspension of flights has become the norm。Some airlines "passenger to cargo" transport epidemic prevention and relief supplies, but generally according to the cost of pricing, covering variable costs, do not rely on this to make money。

At the same time, professional cargo airlines with fixed cargo customers and service capabilities can be said to be ushering in the spring, because they can not only transport epidemic prevention supplies, but also transport orders from normal customers。

Port shipping bearing the brunt

The report on China's shipping climate in the first quarter of 2020, released by the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center on March 31, shows that China's shipping climate index fell to 62 due to the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak.95 points, into the relatively depressed range;China's shipping confidence index is only 39.At 05, it fell into deep recession territory。China's shipping sentiment index and confidence index hit a record low。

According to the "Investigation Report on the impact of the epidemic on container Transportation (I)" released by the China Container Industry Association, the operating income of large port enterprises in the first quarter decreased by 5% to 20% year-on-year, and shipping enterprises fell by 15% to 30% year-on-year in the first quarter。

In terms of ports, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the throughput of major domestic ports has also decreased significantly。

On April 22, the Ministry of Transport released port throughput data in March 2020, and in the first quarter of 2020, the national port cargo throughput was 30.100 million tons, down 4.6%, of which the throughput of foreign trade goods 10.400 million tons;Year-on-year growth 0.3%;Container throughput was 55.18 million TEUs, down 8.5％。In the first quarter of 2020, the cargo throughput of national ports declined, the decline of domestic trade goods narrowed in March, and the growth rate of foreign trade cargo throughput turned negative。

Internationally, because some countries have announced the closure of the country or the city, the relevant staff home office, isolation, traffic restrictions and other reasons, resulting in the evacuation process of goods to the port slowed down, port congestion。

According to statistics, at least 10 countries, including the Philippines, Bangladesh, Italy, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan and Nigeria, are experiencing port congestion。The Baltic Dry index has fallen to an all-time low, losing almost 70% in six months。

At present, a number of shipping companies have expanded the suspension voyage。According to Sea-Intelligence statistics, as of April 5, the total number of suspended flights has risen to 212, most of the suspended flights are concentrated in the next five to six weeks, with the most capacity withdrawn from the Asia-Europe market, which will have 29% to 34% of capacity withdrawn from the market in the next four weeks。

According to the first financial reporter, the current international logistics transportation is mainly based on the transportation of medical protective materials, and the orders of other non-just-needed goods are reduced to a large extent, and the ocean shipping route can not be used for the transportation of epidemic prevention materials due to the timeliness of too slow, so the decline in freight and the suspension of shipping capacity are inevitable。

However, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea and other near-ocean routes can be reached within half a month, to a certain extent can replace air freight, so near-ocean routes are still in a growing trend, and freight rates have risen。

Air cargo demand exceeds supply

Air cargo, by contrast, is doing much better。

Due to the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the demand for international passenger transport has been greatly reduced, and international passenger flights have been suspended, which has also brought a significant decline in cargo capacity。

Zhang Qing, the second-level inspector of the Department of Development and Planning of the Civil Aviation Administration, said that passenger aircraft belly transport is the main mode of transport of China's air cargo, accounting for about 70% of the total air cargo, of which, in domestic routes, passenger aircraft belly traffic accounted for as high as 82%, and in international routes, passenger aircraft belly traffic accounted for 49%。

At present, the global demand for medical treatment and various materials is more vigorous than before the epidemic, and under the imbalance between supply and demand, freight rates are also rising, and the freight prices of many routes have doubled。

Lufthansa Cargo Air China's first generation Mi Dongmei told reporters that due to the previous use of passenger aircraft belly capacity due to the global flight suspension has been greatly reduced, the market rate of all freighters has been more than twice higher than last year。

With the spread of the epidemic overseas, the export transportation demand for short-term masks, ventilators and other medical products and equipment is still increasing significantly。According to data released at a press conference under the Joint prevention and control mechanism of The State Council, from March 1 to April 4, a total of 10.2 billion yuan worth of major epidemic prevention and control materials were exported nationwide, mainly including masks.600 million of them, worth 77.200 million yuan;37.52 million pieces of protective clothing, valued at 9.100 million yuan, etc。

High timeliness requirements for the transportation of medical products and equipment have further increased the demand for air cargo。In order to alleviate the pressure of cargo capacity shortage, the Civil Aviation Administration has deliberately moved out many large airports during peak hours for the use of all-cargo aircraft, opened up "green channels" for the approval of cargo flight plans, encouraged domestic and foreign airlines to carry out cargo overtime charter flights, and guided idle passenger planes to carry out cargo flights。

With the support of the policy, domestic and foreign airlines have launched passenger aircraft to perform cargo charter flights。

Domestically, China Eastern Airlines (601115.SH) carried out an emergency "passenger to cargo" modification work on five China Eastern A330 aircraft, and within 48 hours from March 21 to 22, a total of 120 groups and 316 cabin seats were removed from the first two aircraft。In the early morning of March 24, the first A330 "cargo plane" carrying a batch of emergency medical supplies from Shanghai Pudong Airport to Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic。

According to the reporter, China Eastern Airlines received more than 30 classes of cargo demand from Prague, some with passengers to change goods, and some with the full cargo aircraft of China Eastern Airlines Logistics。

Later, China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) also announced the launch of a number of passenger (non-passenger) freight-only flights on March 31。Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), HNA Holdings (600221.SH) and other passenger listed airlines have also flown out a number of "passenger cargo" flights。

不过，A number of industry insiders told reporters，For "passenger-to-cargo" transportation of epidemic prevention and relief supplies，Pricing is generally based on cost，Won't be making money during a pandemic，But for airlines that don't have regular cargo customers，Shipping goods by plane can reduce parking costs，It covers variable costs once it's in the air，Even if you don't make much profit，It's also a lot better than letting a lot of passenger planes sit in the sun at airports。